Recession alarm bells are going off 🔔

A global downturn isn't our base case, but it's still worth reviewing how the travel industry might perform in a worst-case scenario. Even in a turbulent market, travel won't stop — it will shift.

The global travel industry is in a period marked by volatility and change. We believe that the worst case of a global recession can be avoided. But as we write in this report's companion piece, Trump 2.0 and Travel: Analyzing the Economic Impact in the U.S. and Beyond, travel industry growth will likely be slower than we initially expected. We now forecast 2–5% travel industry growth in 2025, down from our forecast at the start of the year for 6–9% growth.   U.S. Domestic Travel Shows Resilience Domestic flight searches within the U.S. were up 9% in January 2025 while inbound searches declined slightly. However, February saw a 6% dip in inbound searches, highlighting the impact of the tariff announcements, while domestic searches remained consistent with last year. Domestic flight bookings show an increase in January this year, followed by a ~6% decline in February, highlighting uncertainty of traveling in the future. However, actual travel volumes in the U.S., primarily driven by domestic travel, remain almost unchanged from last year as of March 2025. On average, they have grown 1% compared to 2024 as of March this year. This suggests that while search volumes have softened, domestic travel in the U.S. continues to show resilience. BUY THE REPORT For access to this report and our entire archive, subscribe to Skift Research today. To sweeten the deal, we're also offering new subscribers 30% off annual subscriptions with code APRIL30. Subscribe now. Skift, 35 W 31st St., Frnt 1, New York, NY 10001, USA Manage preferences